Fig. 1: the latest UAH global temperature subset satellite-based latest global warming data (credit: Dr Roy Spencer).
According to all IPCC greenhouse effect models, air warmed due to sunlight absorption by increasing atmospheric CO2 causes increased water evaporation, which itself is assumed to have a bigger warming effect than CO2 itself. This is the “positive feedback” assumption, essential to all IPCC climate change models. However, this assumption contravenes Archimedes’ law of buoyancy. Archimedes’ law shows that if the tiny temperature rise from the tiny increase in CO2 causes an increase in water evaporation and the evaporated water (humid air) then absorbs infrared and warms up, it should rise buoyantly, so that the average amount of cloud cover increases, which shadows the surface and causes overall negative feedback. Figure 1 shows microwave oxygen temperature measurements for the lower atomsphere (troposphere), and does not show surface temperatures where the surface is under cloud cover, which is the only situation where negative feedback could be detected in real world data:
“Since 1978 Microwave sounding units (MSUs) on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration polar orbiting satellites have measured the intensity of upwelling microwave radiation from atmospheric oxygen, which is proportional to the temperature of broad vertical layers of the atmosphere. Measurements of infrared radiation pertaining to sea surface temperature have been collected since 1967.”
Therefore, Figure 1 exaggerates the global warming at the surface, where increased cloud cover (negative feedback from H2O) opposes and essentially offsets CO2 induced temperature rises. Air near the upper (sunlight reflecting) layer of clouds is heated and warmed up because infrared (long wavelengths) are absorbed by the upper parts of a cloud, but the air below clouds is cooled down. There is no way for a satellite to measure surface temperatures below clouds: they have two methods of measuring temperature and neither penetrates cloud cover effectively. One is the microwave emissions from oxygen (which is distributed through the atmosphere, above and below clouds) and the other is the Planck radiating spectrum which will only measure surface temperatures if and when there is no cloud cover obscuring the surface (otherwise it tells you the temperature of the upper parts of the cloud cover).
Fig. 2: a comparison of direct surface Planck temperature measurements which are not possible through cloud cover (which are therefore limited to clear skies, which rules out the inclusion of negative feedback data and ensures only positive feedback from H2O can be included), with the UAH/RSS tropospheric oxygen microwave emission temperature. There is a very close fit, as you would expect. None of the data curves are true surface temperature, because none include negative feedback from shadows on the surface caused by evaporated water which has been heated by sunshine and buoyantly risen by Archimedes’s law to high altitudes, gradually forming extra cloud cover. As soon as the clouds form, the satellites cannot measure surface temperatures from cloud-cover areas, so negative feedback data is always excluded.
The deceit in this graph is two-fold. First, satellites cannot by any means measure negative feedback effects which only occur under cloud cover, so they are biased in favour of clear skies where H2O feedback on CO2 can only ever be positive. Second, the straight line through the data points is deliberately misleading.
Fig. 3: negative feedback (increased cloud cover) implies that surface temperatures – if detected under clouds without positive feedback bias in satellite data – increases with CO2 induced temperature until it cancels out further temperature rises. The sky becomes slightly more cloudy to compensate for CO2: a self-regulation mechanism like a thermostat as far as the surface is concerned. This negative feedback effect can never be seen properly in existing satellite data, which either average the air temperature of the entire height of the troposphere, which obscures the negative feedback in the smaller height of air under the clouds (microwave oxygen emission sensors) or else exclude negative feedback data altogether by just measuring the Planck temperature of the surface in cloud-free clear skies (which automatically excludes all negative feedback effects from cloud cover).
The temperature proxy data is all a fraud: before 1960 tree ring growth must be used as a proxy despite its failure to correlate to direct temperature measurements after 1960 (leading to the “hide the decline” Phil Jones/Michael Mann IPCC hockey stick curve). It’s clear why tree ring growth isn’t a reliable proxy: trees simply don’t grow as a function of temperature variations alone. The amounts of cloud cover and rainfall sensitively determine growth, so it is a falsehood to first assume temperature is the only variable, and then to turn this assumption concerning data interpretation into “evidence” that somehow defends the assumption in the first place. From 1960 until satellite data arrived in 1980, they used weather station data affected by “urban heat island” hot air pollution from nearby growing cities which has nothing to do with the CO2 greenhouse effect but conveniently gives data which can be manipulated to contribute to a hockey stick curve. So the IPCC choose different unreliable data sources that fit to different parts of a curve that mimicks the CO2 rise curve, and then join them together, omitting the parts of the temperature proxy data which did not convey the intended correlation.
Summary: all IPCC climate models assume H2O causes positive feedback which amplifies a tiny amount of warming from CO2 into a major problem. This assumption is only valid if Archimedes law of buoyancy (the rising of infrared heated moist air to condense and form clouds) is ignored. They give no reason for ignoring buoyancy. The greenhouse effect is exactly what the IPCC models assume, but the earth isn’t a greenhouse because clouds form in the earth (not in a greenhouse) in response to temperature-dependent ocean water evaporation, and the clouds shadow the surface and thus have a cooling, negative feedback effect. This negative feedback can’t be seen in the Planck spectrum surface temperature instruments in satellites because they can’t see see through cloud cover. Although the microwave sensors in satellites do respond in part to oxygen temperatures below clouds, they obfuscate negative feedback by averaging the temperature of all the oxygen in the troposphere including positive feedback from air near the upper (sunlight heated) parts of clouds. Using a greenhouse with a cloud cover preventing glass ceiling as a model for the earth is a lie. The earth doesn’t have a glass ceiling to prevent increasing cloud cover from increasingly CO2 heated ocean evaporation. All IPCC models and data are frauds. Clearly, there is a small CO2 temperature rise from CO2 alone, but this causes an increase in cloud cover which largely offsets this. The IPCC lie is to assume falsely that climatic cloud cover is independent of temperature, and then to fiddle the data to coincide with the false predictions from its wide array of false models.
Sure the climate is changing and CO2 is increasing, but the climate is always changing so there is 50% chance of rising temperatures, and 50% chance of falling temperatures at any time in history. In the 1970s, fanatical experts sought funding for a scare story that predicted a new ice age due to falling temperatures caused by pollution blocking out sunlight. Now it’s the opposite. But the CO2-temperature correlation is qualitatively meaningless because there is a massive 50% chance by sheer coincidence that temperatures will be rising like CO2, and the correlation is quantitatively a fiddle because there is no reliable data that properly includes negative feedback for the whole planet (i.e. surface temperatures, under cloud cover).
People need to be told:
(1) that the earth is not a greenhouse because cloud cover increases and cools the earth (cancelling most of the CO2 effect, not amplifying it) as the oceans are warmed slightly by CO2 in the atomsphere (something that does not happen inside a greenhouse, because they don’t have oceans and clouds in them), and
(2) satellite data on temperatures either use clear sky area Planck spectrum data or else average the oxygen microwave emissions from the entire troposphere and thus exclude the cloud cover. In neither case does the satellite data include negative feedback on surface temperatures from increasing cloud cover overhead. So the satellite data is all biased against including observed negative feedback from H2O, and only including positive feedback from H2O in the early stage of heating (which occurs over the oceans prior to the development of cloud cover). There is absolutely no evidence for the massive amplification of temperature rise by H2O positive feedback assumed in all IPCC CO2 scare mongering computer models, while there is objective evidence (from both Archimedes’ buoyancy of infrared warmed moist air, and from Spencer’s negative feedback cloud cover evidence) that this assumption is false. Liars conflate this false assumption with half-baked data which is misinterpreted using this false assumption, and then pass off this abuse of data as evidence to substantiate the false assumption (an entirely circular argument, just like claiming the sun’s apparent motion across the sky proves that the sun orbits the earth daily). (Don’t get me wrong: we’re only biased against quackery and nobody has ever published any scientific evidence for positive feedback from H2O which is reliable, and disproves Archimedes’ law of buoyancy.)
Update (19 March 2012):
A revised version of my comment submitted to Calder’s blog, concerning the opposition to genuine scientific debate by political activists using green scare policies as the propaganda pseudoscience tool for implementing a USSR-type state control of industry and individuals (the “Reichstag fire” mechanism):
Regardless of the precise altitude and cloud types involved (cold saturated low pressure air in all cases), the cosmic ray mechanism for climate change is the Wilson cloud chamber effect. I suggest this instrument would be a handy way of getting photos and video to communicate what is going on to people in a clear, hard-hitting manner.
A former climate change editor for Scientific American has just (17 March 2012) written a Scientific American blog post called “Effective World Government Will Be Needed to Stave Off Climate Catastrophe”, http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/2012/03/17/effective-world-government-will-still-be-needed-to-stave-off-climate-catastrophe/ which states:
“To be effective, a new set of institutions would have to be imbued with heavy-handed, transnational enforcement powers. There would have to be consideration of some way of embracing head-in-the-cloud answers to social problems that are usually dismissed by policymakers as academic naivete.”
This is scare mongering for political world government, the way that nuclear war dangers was used as a cover for political ideology by the Moscow “World Peace Council” of Brezhnev during the Cold War. Anyone questioning the pseudoscientific propaganda was simply dismissed as a nuclear war advocate or an anti-communist (regardless of the distinction between ideology and realism), i.e. the whole scientific debate was shut down in advance of resolution, by the use of pseudo-morality censorship. Although you would naively expect some experts to continue sticking up for the scientific facts, the corruption spreads. The world government idealism never ended: when the cold war ended, it was just transferred from nuclear war to pollution and climate change fear-mongering designed to scare and panic people into the desired political activity. The dream persists of world government by means of scaring people into it, using “scientific consensus authority”. Maybe the aim is right, maybe not. It is misleading for “science” to be turned into a dogma of religious style dogmatic, bigoted consensus in order to motivate political actions. These people want to achieve a goal using underhand methods. Why use underhand methods? They think it’s the only way. In other words, the aim itself (world government, communism, fascism) is unattractive to the majority, so scare stories are required to force the majority to be interested or tolerant. It was eugenics pseudoscience, plus other lies and stunts like the burning of the Reichstag and the faked “protocol of the elders of zion”, which were essential to the Nazis. Science is killed by making it a mere dogma for use as a political tool.
Green propaganda is effectively working as a replacement for the old Moscow World Peace Council nuclear war fear-mongering, which sought to scare people into agreeing with communism rather than be blown up. Green propaganda today results in a socialist state controlled industry based on national subsidies for inefficient industry (as in the USSR), via the back door. When national socialist state control was abandoned, socialists converted to green state ideology because it involves increasing state control industry and individuals, by laws and taxation. Jimmy Delingpole has named these world government ideologues “Watermelons”, because they’re red on the inside but green on the outside. The subtext is that they don’t really care about science, be it the effects of nuclear war or the effect of the natural climate change Wilson cloud chamber mechanism. What they do care about is using and promoting any currently fashionable spurious arguments to scare people into state control activism. This is the old ideologue tactic. It was used by Lenin and Hitler, and more recently self-deluded fanatics like Saddam and Gadaffi. These people use creepy lying and scare-tactic propaganda, not facts.